Gold Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 21:00 PKT
Gold (XAU/USD) hourly report for 10 Nov 2026, 21:00 PKT. Spot $4,044.54 (Finnhub/OANDA, MID).
- Spot timestamp
- Source
- Finnhub/OANDA (MID)
- Data age
- 47 minutes
- Status
- Historical
Historical verified record — this is the data as published at the time, not the current market state.
Last completed 1-hour candle
| Open | High | Low | Close | Provider (basis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4,039.01 | $4,053.91 | $4,033.83 | $4,042.12 | Dukascopy (BID) |
RSI(14) 1H: 29.20 (Oversold). RSI(14) 4H: 44.32 (Neutral).
Position vs pivots
Below Pivot by $70.07 (-1.70%), below S1 by $35.95; nearest level S1 $35.95 above.
Daily pivots in force at the time — trading date Tue 10 Nov (from 2026-11-09 OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA): Pivot $4,114.60, R1 $4,174.80, S1 $4,080.48.
Allocation outlook at this report
Evidence score E = -6 — Bearish (previous run: Bearish).
Evidence-score components
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| 1H momentum | +1 |
| 1H level persistence | -2 |
| 4H structure | -2 |
| RSI(14) 1H | -1 |
| RSI(14) 4H | -1 |
| Daily RSI(14) | +1 |
| Spot vs daily EMA20 | -1 |
| Spot vs daily Pivot | -1 |
| Total E | -6 |
Conviction
| Conviction | Central | Range | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 0% | 0–5% | 0% | 0pp |
| Bearish | 60% | 55–65% | 60% | 0pp |
| Neutral | 40% | 35–45% | 40% | 0pp |
Recommended allocation band — status: ADOPTED
| Line | Adopted | Recommended band | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical — Hold | 40% | 30–40% | 45% | -5pp |
| Physical — Sell | 60% | 60–70% | 55% | +5pp |
| Cash — Keep cash | 90% | 85–95% | 85% | +5pp |
| Cash — Buy | 10% | 5–15% | 15% | -5pp |
Why this conviction: The regime stays Bearish because the latest 1H candle bounced bullish but every other component remains bearish — 17 consecutive 1H closes below R1, bearish 4H structure, both RSIs below 50, and spot below both EMA20 and Pivot. The bounce is a pause inside the downtrend, not a reversal.
Why this allocation: Adoption to the Bearish band is due — the Bearish regime has persisted for 3 consecutive runs with all 8 components now verified (the missing 19:00-20:00 candle was recovered, so the data-quality guard no longer blocks). The central moves one 5pp step toward the Bearish band target (Sell 55→60, Keep 85→90); 5pp of the Sell move remains to complete on the next update.
Full report as text
Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 21:00 PKT XAU/USD spot: $4,044.54 R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80 Pivot: 4114.60 S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. XAG/USD spot: $51.62 R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14 Pivot: 52.84 S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. Hourly update — Gold (XAU/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: $70.07 (-1.70%) below; nearest support/resistance: S1 $4,080.48, $35.95 above; above S2 $4,020.28 by $24.26. - Crossed/rejected level: S1 broken on a verified 1H candle for the sixth consecutive hour (both new candles closed below S1); R1 was not reached in either hour. - 1H/4H structure change: the 1H momentum flipped bullish on the latest candle (a small bounce, body 15.5%), but the new 17:00-21:00 4H candle is bearish — lower high and lower low than the 13:00-17:00 4H candle — so the 4H downtrend structure is unchanged. - Current price vs previous completed 1H close: +$2.42 (+0.06%) vs $4,042.12. - Last completed 1H candle (20:00-21:00 PKT): Bullish, O $4,039.01 H $4,053.91 L $4,033.83 C $4,042.12, body $3.11 = 15.5% of range. The 19:00-20:00 candle was recovered late (Bearish, O $4,051.89 H $4,061.16 L $4,032.70 C $4,039.01, body $12.88 = 45.2% of range) — a new Tue-session BID low of $4,032.70. - 4H trend: Bearish — the new 17:00-21:00 4H candle (O $4,073.97 H $4,079.65 L $4,032.70 C $4,042.12) made a lower high and a lower low than the 13:00-17:00 4H candle. - RSI(14): 1H 29.20, 4H 44.32. - VWAP unavailable. - Daily Pivot $4,114.60 restated (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $4,174.80, then above R2 $4,208.91; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $4,020.28, then below S3 $3,986.17. - Reassessment vs the last 24 hours: gold is $77.19 (-1.87%) below the Mon 21:00 report spot and lower at every checkpoint (1h/3h/6h/12h/24h); the bearish thesis is confirmed on verified candles — the recovered 19:00-20:00 candle and the new 4H candle both extended the post-CPI sell-off. The bullish 20:00-21:00 1H candle is a pause, not a reversal; no verified close above R1 in 17 hours. Hourly update — Silver (XAG/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: $1.22 (-2.32%) below; nearest support/resistance: S1 $52.14, $0.52 above; above S2 $50.84 by $0.78. - Crossed/rejected level: S1 broken on a verified 1H candle for the third consecutive hour; R1 was not reached. - 1H/4H structure change: no change in direction — the latest 1H candle is bearish again and the new 17:00-21:00 4H candle is bearish (lower high and lower low); the 4H RSI flipped below 50. - Current price vs previous completed 1H close: +$0.09 (+0.17%) vs $51.53. - Last completed 1H candle (20:00-21:00 PKT): Bearish, O $51.91 H $52.07 L $51.31 C $51.53, body $0.39 = 50.5% of range — a new Tue-session BID low of $51.31. - 4H trend: Bearish — the new 17:00-21:00 4H candle (O $52.29 H $52.45 L $51.31 C $51.53) made a lower high and a lower low than the 13:00-17:00 4H candle. - RSI(14): 1H 31.65, 4H 44.47. - VWAP unavailable. - Daily Pivot $52.84 restated (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $54.14, then above R2 $54.85; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $50.84, then below S3 $50.14. - Reassessment vs the last 24 hours: silver is $1.23 (-2.33%) below the Mon 21:00 report spot and lower at every checkpoint; the bearish thesis strengthened (E -6 to -10) on verified candles — S1 broken a third consecutive hour and the 4H RSI flipped below 50. No verified close above R1 in 17 hours. Daily pivot validation status: - Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (O $4,061.89, H $4,148.71, L $4,054.40, C $4,140.69), Finnhub/OANDA. No newer completed daily candle found — the Tue candle is in progress (closes 03:00 PKT Wed). Pivots newly calculated from the Mon 9 Nov OHLC (recomputed this run, matched the sheet). - Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (O $51.61, H $53.55, L $51.55, C $53.44), Finnhub/OANDA. No newer completed daily candle found — the Tue candle is in progress (closes 03:00 PKT Wed). Pivots newly calculated from the Mon 9 Nov OHLC (recomputed this run, matched the sheet). Data quality note: VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. All other listed datasets verified: spot (Finnhub/OANDA, 3 checks ~21:00-21:05 PKT, live and moving), daily OHLC/pivots (Mon 9 Nov, recomputed and matched), 1H/4H candles (Dukascopy BID, 5 new verified candles including the recovered 19:00-20:00 XAU candle), RSI 1H/4H (recomputed from stored Dukascopy closes, reproduction exact). Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook Gold: - Evidence score E = -6 (1H momentum +1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H -1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 40% (range 30-40), Sell 60% (range 60-70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85-95), Buy 10% (range 5-15) — Previous: Hold 45 / Sell 55, Keep 85 / Buy 15, Change: -5pp / +5pp, +5pp / -5pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: the regime stays Bearish because the latest 1H candle bounced bullish but every other component remains bearish — 17 consecutive 1H closes below R1, bearish 4H structure, both RSIs below 50, and spot below both EMA20 and Pivot. The bounce is a pause inside the downtrend, not a reversal. - Reason for the allocation decision: adoption to the Bearish band is due — the Bearish regime has persisted for 3 consecutive runs with all 8 components now verified (the missing 19:00-20:00 candle was recovered, so the data-quality guard no longer blocks). The central moves one 5pp step toward the Bearish band target (Sell 55→60, Keep 85→90); 5pp of the Sell move remains to complete on the next update. Silver: - Evidence score E = -10 (1H momentum -1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H -1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 35% (range 30-40), Sell 65% (range 60-70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85-95), Buy 10% (range 5-15) — Previous: Hold 35 / Sell 65, Keep 90 / Buy 10, Change: 0pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: the evidence strengthened (E -6 to -10) — the latest 1H candle turned bearish again, the 4H RSI flipped below 50, and S1 broke for a third consecutive verified hour; no component supports a regime change. - Reason for the allocation decision: the Bearish band is already adopted and the central is on target, so no change is due; the strengthened evidence confirms the adopted position rather than requiring a new step. Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.