Methodology

This page documents exactly how every number on this site is produced. The website does not redesign or reinterpret the analysis system — it presents the verified system's outputs.

Sources

• Spot: Finnhub/OANDA, MID basis. Spot is a snapshot at the stated timestamp; it is never used as a candle close.
• 1-hour and 4-hour candles: Dukascopy, BID basis, fetched via the dukascopy-node CLI. Bars are open-stamped in UTC; a candle is only used once it has fully closed.
• Daily and weekly OHLC: Finnhub/OANDA, MID basis, verified separately for gold and silver — the two metals do not necessarily share candle availability or closing times.
• Cross-checks: a second credible source is consulted where possible, and material discrepancies (gold $5, silver $0.20) are reported, not hidden.

Formulas

• Classic (Floor) pivots: P = (H + L + C) / 3; R1 = 2P − L; R2 = P + (H − L); R3 = H + 2(P − L); S1 = 2P − H; S2 = P − (H − L); S3 = L − 2(H − P). Ordering R3 ≥ R2 ≥ R1 ≥ P ≥ S1 ≥ S2 ≥ S3 is checked on every published set.
• Fibonacci pivots: the Classic Pivot with 0.382, 0.618 and 1.000 of the session range. Published separately, never combined with Classic levels.
• Camarilla pivots: computed around the close (R1–R4, S1–S4), published separately.
• RSI(14): Wilder's RSI, computed independently on the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily closes from each timeframe's own verified series. Needs at least 15 closes; otherwise it is unavailable.
• EMA 20/50/200 and ATR(14): computed from verified daily closes. EMA(200) requires 200 verified daily closes.

Pivot labelling

A pivot level is labelled by the session whose OHLC it was calculated from, not by the session it governs. The sheet's trading date is the session the pivots apply to; the source-OHLC date is the previous completed session. Example: the R3 of $4,045.05 that gold held above in early November was calculated from Tuesday 3 November OHLC (trading date 4 November).

Session extremes

Every session high or low names its provider and price basis (for example "Dukascopy BID" vs "Finnhub/OANDA MID"), because the two bases differ. A session extreme is never quoted without its provider.

Flat candles

A flat bar (open = high = low = close) is excluded only when a verified session rule marks the interval non-trading (weekend pre-open, Saturday, or the daily-break hour) or when the bar is a provider-confirmed placeholder. O = H = L = C alone never excludes a candle. A flat bar at exactly the previous close is a carry-forward warning, not proof, and is stored and flagged unless independent evidence confirms it is a placeholder.

Freshness and data quality

Daily pivots are recalculated at every run from the latest fully completed trading day. A value that cannot be verified is shown as unavailable, with conviction lowered — never fabricated, and never carried forward as if it were current. Spot above R3 or below S3 is reported as spot-only unless verified by a completed candle. VWAP is shown only where genuine intraday volume exists; spot gold and silver have no centralised volume, so VWAP is unavailable.

Allocation rules

Physical holdings (long-term) are kept distinct from fresh-cash decisions and from conviction. Missing 1H/4H, RSI or VWAP evidence lowers confidence and never raises selling. Physical selling may rise at most 5 percentage points in one update unless a clearly documented, independently verified event justifies it. An unconfirmed pivot breach justifies no increase. Every report shows previous, new and point-change figures. Percentages are technical conviction and decision preference, not statistically verified probabilities.

Run status

Each scheduler run is recorded as SUCCESS, PARTIAL or FAILED. A run is only promoted to SUCCESS or PARTIAL after its report has been delivered and its record verified by read-back; a run whose delivery fails stays FAILED and can never supply a future allocation baseline. Hourly baselines come from the previous verified hourly report; daily baselines come from the previous verified daily report — the two are never mixed.

Retention

Hourly history is retained 8 days; 1-hour candles 30 days; 4-hour candles 60 days; daily candles and daily pivots 90 days; run logs 30 days. The current snapshot is updated in place and never pruned. Pruning is by each record's own timestamp, never by row position.

Market hours

All times are PKT (Asia/Karachi, UTC+5). Winter: market opens Monday 04:00 and closes Saturday 03:00, with a daily break Tuesday–Friday 03:00–04:00. The scheduler stays silent during the weekend blackout and the daily break. The daily report is published at 03:30 PKT Tuesday–Saturday, for the session that just closed.