Gold Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 20:00 PKT
Gold (XAU/USD) hourly report for 10 Nov 2026, 20:00 PKT. Spot $4,048.09 (Finnhub/OANDA, MID).
- Spot timestamp
- Source
- Finnhub/OANDA (MID)
- Data age
- 37 minutes
- Status
- Historical
Historical verified record — this is the data as published at the time, not the current market state.
Last completed 1-hour candle
| Open | High | Low | Close | Provider (basis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4,078.87 | $4,079.65 | $4,039.90 | $4,051.88 | Dukascopy (BID) |
RSI(14) 1H: 30.32 (Neutral). RSI(14) 4H: 49.51 (Neutral).
Position vs pivots
Below Pivot by $66.52 (-1.62%), below S1 by $32.40; nearest level S1 $32.40 above.
Daily pivots in force at the time — trading date Tue 10 Nov (from 2026-11-09 OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA): Pivot $4,114.60, R1 $4,174.80, S1 $4,080.48.
Allocation outlook at this report
Evidence score E = -8 — Bearish (previous run: Bearish).
Evidence-score components
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| 1H momentum | -1 |
| 1H level persistence | -2 |
| 4H structure | -2 |
| RSI(14) 1H | -1 |
| RSI(14) 4H | -1 |
| Daily RSI(14) | +1 |
| Spot vs daily EMA20 | -1 |
| Spot vs daily Pivot | -1 |
| Total E | -8 |
Conviction
| Conviction | Central | Range | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 0% | 0–5% | 0% | 0pp |
| Bearish | 60% | 55–65% | 60% | 0pp |
| Neutral | 40% | 35–45% | 40% | 0pp |
Recommended allocation band — status: HELD
| Line | Adopted | Recommended band | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical — Hold | 45% | 40–50% | 45% | 0pp |
| Physical — Sell | 55% | 50–60% | 55% | 0pp |
| Cash — Keep cash | 85% | 80–90% | 85% | 0pp |
| Cash — Buy | 15% | 10–20% | 15% | 0pp |
Why this conviction: The recovered 18:00-19:00 candle is bearish and flips 1H momentum negative, taking E from -6 to -8, so conviction stays at the Bearish central — but the 19:00-20:00 candle is still unpublished, so the momentum and persistence components are one hour stale and the regime, while confirmed by the recovered candle, rests on incomplete hourly evidence.
Why this allocation: The Bearish regime has now persisted for 2 consecutive runs, which would normally adopt the Bearish band, but the data-quality guard blocks adoption because the 1H momentum and persistence components are stale — the allocation is held at the adopted Mildly Bearish band with no change; adoption needs a verified 1H candle and a persisting Bearish regime on the next run.
Full report as text
Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 20:00 PKT XAU/USD spot: $4,048.09 R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80 Pivot: 4114.60 S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. XAG/USD spot: $51.96 R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14 Pivot: 52.84 S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. Hourly update — Gold (XAU/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $66.52 (-1.62%). Nearest level: S1 $4,080.48 ($32.40 above). - Crossed/rejected: the recovered 18:00-19:00 1H candle broke S1 for the 4th consecutive verified hour (close $28.60 below S1, low $40.58 below) and made a new Tue-session BID low; the 19:00-20:00 candle is still unpublished, so the streak cannot be extended on a verified candle — spot is below S1 on a spot-only basis. R1 rejected — 15 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: the 18:00-19:00 1H candle turned sharply bearish (close -$27.06, body 67.9%) after the CPI hour — the first verified gold reaction to the CPI release; 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT still bearish, lower high and lower low). - Previous verified completed 1H close: $4,051.88 (18:00-19:00 PKT candle — STALE, one hour old). Spot vs that close: -$3.79 (-0.09%). - Last verified completed 1H candle (18:00-19:00 PKT): Bearish, O $4,078.87, H $4,079.65, L $4,039.90, C $4,051.88; body $26.99 = 67.9% of range. The 19:00-20:00 candle is unavailable. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $38.42 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($4,121.37 < $4,127.60) and a lower low ($4,068.62 < $4,108.23). - RSI(14): 1H 30.32, 4H 49.51. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $4,114.60 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $4,174.80, then above R2 $4,208.91; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $4,020.28, then below S3 $3,986.17. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Hourly update — Silver (XAG/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $0.88 (-1.66%). Nearest level: S1 $52.14 ($0.18 above). - Crossed/rejected: S1 broken on a verified 1H candle for the 2nd consecutive hour (close $0.23 below S1, low $0.70 below); the candle bounced off a new Tue-session BID low to close higher. R1 rejected — 16 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: the 19:00-20:00 1H candle turned bullish (close +$0.19, body 36.7%) — a pause inside the downtrend, not a reversal: it still closed below S1 and below the Pivot; 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT bearish). - Previous completed 1H close: $51.91 (19:00-20:00 PKT candle). Spot vs previous completed 1H close: +$0.05 (+0.10%). - Last completed 1H candle (19:00-20:00 PKT): Bullish, O $51.723, H $51.954, L $51.445, C $51.91; body $0.19 = 36.7% of range. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $0.41 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($52.895 < $53.464) and a lower low ($52.222 < $52.681). - RSI(14): 1H 36.39, 4H 50.17. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $52.84 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $54.14, then above R2 $54.85; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $50.84, then below S3 $50.14. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Reassessment vs earlier reports: gold's Bearish thesis is now CONFIRMED on a verified candle — the recovered 18:00-19:00 candle shows the post-CPI sell-off in full (close -$27.06, new session BID low, S1 broken a 4th consecutive hour, RSI 1H down to 30.32). But the 19:00-20:00 candle is still unpublished, so the momentum and persistence components use the 18:00-19:00 candle, labelled stale, and the data-quality guard blocks any allocation adoption this run. Silver's Bearish thesis is unchanged: the 19:00-20:00 candle bounced but still closed below S1 for the 2nd consecutive hour, and E improved only to -6 from -8 — a pause, not a thesis change. Spot vs 1h ago: gold -$8.69 (-0.21%), silver +$0.19 (+0.36%); vs 3h: gold -$25.67 (-0.63%), silver -$0.34 (-0.65%); vs 6h: gold -$49.99 (-1.22%), silver -$0.55 (-1.05%); vs 12h: gold -$63.08 (-1.53%), silver -$1.05 (-1.98%); vs 24h: gold -$67.61 (-1.64%), silver -$0.70 (-1.32%). US CPI (October) was released at 18:30 PKT today — gold's verified post-CPI reaction is now in (the 18:00-19:00 candle). Selling allocation is never an instruction to liquidate long-term physical holdings. Daily pivot validation status: - Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue candle closes 03:00 PKT Wed; the Tue bar in progress was not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. - Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue bar in progress, not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. Data quality note: Gold's 19:00-20:00 1H candle is unavailable from Dukascopy (6 fresh post-close fetches 20:00:22-20:11:07 PKT, all n=38; late publication — the same pattern as the 18:00-19:00 candle, which was missing at 19:00 and recovered this run at 20:00:22). Gold's 1H momentum and persistence use the 18:00-19:00 candle, labelled STALE (one hour stale); the data-quality guard blocks gold adoption this run. XAU spot-feed discrepancy: Finnhub/OANDA $4,048.09 vs thegoldprice.net $4,072.40-$4,076.50 (about $25-28) — the other pages show the same values as the 19:00 run with crawls 1-3 hours old (goldprice.dev timestamped 11:23 UTC, xauticker 12:11 UTC), so they are stale cached snapshots, not live quotes; Finnhub is live and moving and is corroborated by the verified Dukascopy BID candle (18:00-19:00 close $4,051.88, low $4,039.90, below the daily EMA20), so the EMA20 component is scored on Finnhub. All other listed datasets verified. Spot (Finnhub/OANDA, ~20:09-20:10 PKT), daily OHLC Mon 9 Nov (Finnhub/OANDA), Dukascopy 1H/4H candles (fresh fetch 20:00:22 PKT, continuity checked), RSI 1H/4H (Dukascopy closes), daily RSI/EMA20 (267 completed daily closes). VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. The 17:00-21:00 4H candles are forming and close at 21:00 PKT. Note: the structured daily series' Tue in-progress bar low (XAU 4068.715 / XAG 52.1905) is stale against the live Finnhub snapshot low (4033.03 / 51.4685); the snapshot low is used for session extremes. Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook Gold: - Evidence score E = -8 (component breakdown: 1H momentum -1 STALE, persistence -2 STALE, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H -1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 45% (range 40-50), Sell 55% (range 50-60); Cash Keep 85% (range 80-90), Buy 15% (range 10-20) — Previous: Hold 45 / Sell 55, Keep 85 / Buy 15, Change: 0pp, Status: HELD - Reason for the conviction decision: the recovered 18:00-19:00 candle is bearish and flips 1H momentum negative, taking E from -6 to -8, so conviction stays at the Bearish central — but the 19:00-20:00 candle is still unpublished, so the momentum and persistence components are one hour stale and the regime, while confirmed by the recovered candle, rests on incomplete hourly evidence. Reason for the allocation decision: the Bearish regime has now persisted for 2 consecutive runs, which would normally adopt the Bearish band, but the data-quality guard blocks adoption because the 1H momentum and persistence components are stale — the allocation is held at the adopted Mildly Bearish band with no change; adoption needs a verified 1H candle and a persisting Bearish regime on the next run. Silver: - Evidence score E = -6 (component breakdown: 1H momentum +1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 35% (range 30-40), Sell 65% (range 60-70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85-95), Buy 10% (range 5-15) — Previous: Hold 35 / Sell 65, Keep 90 / Buy 10, Change: 0pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: the 19:00-20:00 candle bounced bullish, flipping 1H momentum positive and lifting E from -8 to -6, but it still closed below S1 and below the Pivot with 16 consecutive closes below R1, so the regime stays Bearish and conviction is unchanged. Reason for the allocation decision: the Bearish regime persists and the allocation is already on the Bearish band target, so it is held at Hold 35/Sell 65 and Cash Keep 90/Buy 10 with no change; a single bullish hourly candle inside a downtrend is not enough to move the band. Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.