Gold Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 19:00 PKT
Gold (XAU/USD) hourly report for 10 Nov 2026, 19:00 PKT. Spot $4,056.77 (Finnhub/OANDA, MID).
- Spot timestamp
- Source
- Finnhub/OANDA (MID)
- Data age
- 1 hour 35 minutes
- Status
- Historical
Historical verified record — this is the data as published at the time, not the current market state.
Last completed 1-hour candle
| Open | High | Low | Close | Provider (basis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4,073.97 | $4,079.47 | $4,073.07 | $4,078.94 | Dukascopy (BID) |
RSI(14) 1H: 38.02 (Neutral). RSI(14) 4H: 49.51 (Neutral).
Position vs pivots
Below Pivot by $57.83 (-1.41%), below S1 by $23.71; nearest level S1 $23.71 above.
Daily pivots in force at the time — trading date Tue 10 Nov (from 2026-11-09 OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA): Pivot $4,114.60, R1 $4,174.80, S1 $4,080.48.
Allocation outlook at this report
Evidence score E = -6 — Bearish (previous run: Mildly Bearish).
Evidence-score components
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| 1H momentum | +1 |
| 1H level persistence | -2 |
| 4H structure | -2 |
| RSI(14) 1H | -1 |
| RSI(14) 4H | -1 |
| Daily RSI(14) | +1 |
| Spot vs daily EMA20 | -1 |
| Spot vs daily Pivot | -1 |
| Total E | -6 |
Conviction
| Conviction | Central | Range | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 0% | 0–5% | 5% | -5pp |
| Bearish | 60% | 55–65% | 45% | +15pp |
| Neutral | 40% | 35–45% | 50% | -10pp |
Recommended allocation band — status: HELD
| Line | Adopted | Recommended band | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical — Hold | 45% | 40–50% | 45% | 0pp |
| Physical — Sell | 55% | 50–60% | 55% | 0pp |
| Cash — Keep cash | 85% | 80–90% | 85% | 0pp |
| Cash — Buy | 15% | 10–20% | 15% | 0pp |
Why this conviction: E fell from -4 to -6, crossing from Mildly Bearish into the Bearish regime — the Finnhub spot fell below the daily EMA20, flipping that component negative; but the 18:00-19:00 verified candle is missing and a second feed sits ~$20 higher, straddling the EMA20, so this regime change is spot-based and unconfirmed.
Why this allocation: The regime changed to Bearish but the data-quality guard blocks adoption — the 1H momentum and persistence components are stale (one hour old) and the spot-feed discrepancy leaves the EMA20 component uncertain — so the allocation is held at the adopted Mildly Bearish band with no change; adoption needs a second consecutive Bearish run with verified components.
Full report as text
Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 19:00 PKT XAU/USD spot: $4,056.77 R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80 Pivot: 4114.60 S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. XAG/USD spot: $51.77 R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14 Pivot: 52.84 S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. Hourly update — Gold (XAU/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $57.83 (-1.41%). Nearest level: S1 $4,080.48 ($23.71 above). - Crossed/rejected: no verified 1H candle this hour — the 18:00-19:00 Dukascopy candle is still unpublished at 19:10 PKT, so the S1 break cannot be extended on a verified candle; spot is below S1 on a spot-only basis. R1 rejected — 14 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: the 18:00-19:00 1H candle is unavailable (see Data quality note); the last verified 1H candle (17:00-18:00) was bullish. 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT still bearish, lower high and lower low). - Previous verified completed 1H close: $4,078.94 (17:00-18:00 PKT candle — STALE, one hour old). Spot vs that close: -$22.17 (-0.54%). - Last verified completed 1H candle (17:00-18:00 PKT): Bullish, O $4,073.97, H $4,079.47, L $4,073.07, C $4,078.94; body $4.97 = 77.7% of range. The 18:00-19:00 candle is unavailable. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $38.42 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($4,121.37 < $4,127.60) and a lower low ($4,068.62 < $4,108.23). - RSI(14): 1H 38.02, 4H 49.51. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $4,114.60 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $4,174.80, then above R2 $4,208.91; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $4,020.28, then below S3 $3,986.17. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Hourly update — Silver (XAG/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $1.07 (-2.02%). Nearest level: S1 $52.14 ($0.37 above). - Crossed/rejected: S1 BROKEN on a verified 1H candle for the first time (close $0.42 below S1, low $0.57 below). R1 rejected — 15 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: the 18:00-19:00 1H candle turned sharply bearish (close -$0.49, body 64.0%) and made a new Tue-session BID low; 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT bearish). - Previous completed 1H close: $51.72 (18:00-19:00 PKT candle). Spot vs previous completed 1H close: +$0.05 (+0.10%). - Last completed 1H candle (18:00-19:00 PKT): Bearish, O $52.201, H $52.321, L $51.574, C $51.723; body $0.48 = 64.0% of range. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $0.41 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($52.895 < $53.464) and a lower low ($52.222 < $52.681). - RSI(14): 1H 31.74, 4H 50.17. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $52.84 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $54.14, then above R2 $54.85; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $50.84, then below S3 $50.14. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Reassessment vs earlier reports: gold's Mildly Bearish thesis from 18:00 has strengthened back to Bearish on the Finnhub spot (E -4 to -6) — but it is NOT confirmed: the 18:00-19:00 verified candle is missing, so the regime change rests on spot only, and a second feed (thegoldprice.net $4,076.50-$4,080.20) sits ~$20 above Finnhub, straddling the daily EMA20. Silver's Bearish thesis is CONFIRMED and pressing lower: the first verified 1H close below S1, a new session low, and RSI 1H down to 31.74. Spot vs 1h ago: gold -$17.74 (-0.44%), silver -$0.33 (-0.63%); vs 3h: gold -$16.04 (-0.39%), silver -$0.57 (-1.09%); vs 6h: gold -$59.40 (-1.44%), silver -$1.07 (-2.02%); vs 12h: gold -$70.21 (-1.70%), silver -$1.39 (-2.61%); vs 24h: gold -$64.73 (-1.57%), silver -$0.92 (-1.75%). US CPI (October) was released at 18:30 PKT today — this hour is the first verified post-CPI reaction for silver; gold's verified reaction is still pending the missing candle. Selling allocation is never an instruction to liquidate long-term physical holdings. Daily pivot validation status: - Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue candle closes 03:00 PKT Wed; the Tue bar in progress was not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. - Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue bar in progress, not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. Data quality note: Gold's 18:00-19:00 1H candle is unavailable from Dukascopy (5 fresh fetches 19:02-19:10 PKT, all n=37; late publication). Gold's 1H momentum and persistence use the 17:00-18:00 candle, labelled STALE (one hour stale); the data-quality guard blocks gold adoption this run. XAU spot-feed discrepancy: Finnhub/OANDA $4,056.77 vs thegoldprice.net $4,076.50-$4,080.20 (about $20, persistent across 3 checks); Finnhub is kept for sheet consistency and the gap straddles the daily EMA20 ($4,073.05), so gold's spot-vs-EMA20 component is flagged uncertain. All other listed datasets verified. Spot (Finnhub/OANDA, ~19:11-19:12 PKT), daily OHLC Mon 9 Nov (Finnhub/OANDA), Dukascopy 1H/4H candles (fresh fetch 19:02:41 PKT, continuity checked), RSI 1H/4H (Dukascopy closes), daily RSI/EMA20 (267 completed daily closes). VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. The 17:00-21:00 4H candles are forming and close at 21:00 PKT. Note: the structured daily series' Tue in-progress bar low (XAU 4068.715 / XAG 52.1905) is stale against the live Finnhub snapshot low (4039.72 / 51.5919); the snapshot low is used for session extremes. Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook Gold: - Evidence score E = -6 (component breakdown: 1H momentum +1 STALE, persistence -2 STALE, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H -1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Mildly Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 5 / 45 / 50, Change: -5pp / +15pp / -10pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 45% (range 40-50), Sell 55% (range 50-60); Cash Keep 85% (range 80-90), Buy 15% (range 10-20) — Previous: Hold 45 / Sell 55, Keep 85 / Buy 15, Change: 0pp, Status: HELD - Reason for the conviction decision: on the Finnhub spot the price fell below the daily EMA20, flipping that component negative and taking E from -4 to -6, so conviction follows the regime into Bearish — but the 18:00-19:00 verified candle is missing and a second feed sits ~$20 higher, straddling the EMA20, so this regime change is spot-based and unconfirmed. Reason for the allocation decision: the regime changed to Bearish but the data-quality guard blocks adoption — the 1H momentum and persistence components are stale (one hour old) and the spot-feed discrepancy leaves the EMA20 component uncertain — so the allocation is held at the adopted Mildly Bearish band with no change; adoption needs a second consecutive Bearish run with verified components. Silver: - Evidence score E = -8 (component breakdown: 1H momentum -1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 35% (range 30-40), Sell 65% (range 60-70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85-95), Buy 10% (range 5-15) — Previous: Hold 35 / Sell 65, Keep 90 / Buy 10, Change: 0pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: every component is unchanged from 18:00 — the bearish 1H candle that broke S1 on a verified close, bearish 4H structure, RSI 1H down to 31.74 and daily RSI in the 40-50 band all still score negative, so conviction stays Bearish. Reason for the allocation decision: the Bearish band is already adopted with its central on target, and the first verified S1 break strengthens the bearish case without changing the band, so the allocation is maintained with no change — a single level break never moves the holdings recommendation on its own. Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.