Gold Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 18:00 PKT
Gold (XAU/USD) hourly report for 10 Nov 2026, 18:00 PKT. Spot $4,074.51 (Finnhub/OANDA, MID).
- Spot timestamp
- Source
- Finnhub/OANDA (MID)
- Data age
- 42 minutes
- Status
- Historical
Historical verified record — this is the data as published at the time, not the current market state.
Last completed 1-hour candle
| Open | High | Low | Close | Provider (basis) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $4,073.97 | $4,079.47 | $4,073.07 | $4,078.94 | Dukascopy (BID) |
RSI(14) 1H: 38.02 (Neutral). RSI(14) 4H: 49.51 (Neutral).
Position vs pivots
Below Pivot by $40.10 (-0.97%), below S1 by $5.98; nearest level S1 $5.98 above.
Daily pivots in force at the time (from 2026-11-09 OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA): Pivot $4,114.60, R1 $4,174.80, S1 $4,080.48.
Allocation outlook at this report
Evidence score E = -4 — Mildly Bearish (previous run: Bearish).
Evidence-score components
| Component | Score |
|---|---|
| 1H momentum | +1 |
| 1H level persistence | -2 |
| 4H structure | -2 |
| RSI(14) 1H | -1 |
| RSI(14) 4H | -1 |
| Daily RSI(14) | +1 |
| Spot vs daily EMA20 | +1 |
| Spot vs daily Pivot | -1 |
| Total E | -4 |
Conviction
| Conviction | Central | Range | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bullish | 5% | 0–10% | 0% | +5pp |
| Bearish | 45% | 40–50% | 60% | -15pp |
| Neutral | 50% | 45–55% | 40% | +10pp |
Recommended allocation band — status: ADOPTED
| Line | Adopted | Recommended band | Previous (allocation-engine v1) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Physical — Hold | 45% | 40–50% | 45% | 0pp |
| Physical — Sell | 55% | 50–60% | 55% | 0pp |
| Cash — Keep cash | 85% | 80–90% | 80% | +5pp |
| Cash — Buy | 15% | 10–20% | 20% | -5pp |
Why this conviction: E improved from -6 to -4, crossing back from Bearish into the Mildly Bearish regime — the 17:00-18:00 1H candle closed bullish, flipping momentum positive; but the 4H structure is still bearish, both RSIs sit below 50 and 14 consecutive 1H closes are below R1, so this is a one-candle pause, not a reversal.
Why this allocation: The adopted band is already Mildly Bearish, so no new adoption is due; this run completes the central catch-up allowed by the 5pp cap (Keep 80 to 85, now on target; Sell stays 55 on target) because the band is still adopted and every component is verified.
Full report as text
Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 18:00 PKT XAU/USD spot: $4,074.51 R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80 Pivot: 4114.60 S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17 Spot is below Pivot, below S1. XAG/USD spot: $52.10 R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14 Pivot: 52.84 S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14 Spot is below Pivot, below S1 (spot-only). Hourly update — Gold (XAU/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $40.10 (-0.97%). Nearest level: S1 $4,080.48 ($5.98 above). - Crossed/rejected: S1 broken on a verified 1H candle for the third consecutive hour (close $1.55 below S1, low $7.42 below). R1 rejected — 14 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: the 17:00-18:00 1H candle turned BULLISH (close +$4.97, body 77.7%) — the first bullish 1H close after a run of bearish closes; 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT still bearish, lower high and lower low). - Previous completed 1H close: $4,078.94 (17:00-18:00 PKT candle). Spot vs previous completed 1H close: -$4.43 (-0.11%). - Last completed 1H candle (17:00-18:00 PKT): Bullish, O $4,073.97, H $4,079.47, L $4,073.07, C $4,078.94; body $4.97 = 77.7% of range. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $38.42 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($4,121.37 < $4,127.60) and a lower low ($4,068.62 < $4,108.23). - RSI(14): 1H 38.02, 4H 49.51. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $4,114.60 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $4,174.80, then above R2 $4,208.91; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S2 $4,020.28, then below S3 $3,986.17. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Hourly update — Silver (XAG/USD): - Distance from daily Pivot: below by $0.74 (-1.40%). Nearest level: S1 $52.14 ($0.04 above). - Crossed/rejected: S1 tested but NOT broken on a verified candle (low $0.03 above S1, closest test yet); spot has since dipped below S1 ($52.10) on a spot-only basis — UNCONFIRMED. R1 rejected — 14 consecutive verified 1H closes below R1. - 1H/4H structure change: none — the 17:00-18:00 1H candle stayed bearish and made a new Tue-session BID low; 4H structure unchanged (latest completed 4H 13:00-17:00 PKT bearish). - Previous completed 1H close: $52.21 (17:00-18:00 PKT candle). Spot vs previous completed 1H close: -$0.11 (-0.21%). - Last completed 1H candle (17:00-18:00 PKT): Bearish, O $52.294, H $52.445, L $52.173, C $52.21; body $0.08 = 30.9% of range. - 4H trend: Bearish — latest completed 4H (13:00-17:00 PKT) closed $0.41 below the prior 4H close, with a lower high ($52.895 < $53.464) and a lower low ($52.222 < $52.681). - RSI(14): 1H 38.56, 4H 50.17. - VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. - Daily Pivot $52.84 (daily candle Mon 9 Nov 2026, Finnhub/OANDA). - Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 $54.14, then above R2 $54.85; bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S1 $52.14, then below S2 $50.84. Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case. Reassessment vs earlier reports: gold's Bearish thesis from 17:00 has weakened back to Mildly Bearish (E -6 to -4) on the first bullish 1H candle, but it is not invalidated — the 4H structure is still bearish and 14 consecutive 1H closes sit below R1; silver's Bearish thesis holds (E -8 unchanged) and is pressing S1. Spot vs 1h ago: gold +$0.76 (+0.02%), silver -$0.20 (-0.39%); vs 3h: gold -$13.27 (-0.32%), silver -$0.52 (-0.99%); vs 6h: gold -$48.69 (-1.18%), silver -$0.97 (-1.83%); vs 12h: gold -$51.06 (-1.24%), silver -$1.10 (-2.06%); vs 24h: gold -$50.92 (-1.23%), silver -$0.60 (-1.13%). US CPI (October) is due at 18:30 PKT today — no allocation change is justified on a spot-only move ahead of it; the 19:00 run will capture the first verified post-CPI reaction. Daily pivot validation status: - Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue candle closes 03:00 PKT Wed; the Tue bar in progress, C 4117.305, was not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. - Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov 2026 OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA: O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365), trading date Tue 10 Nov 2026; no newer completed daily candle found (Tue bar in progress, C 52.789, not used); pivots newly calculated from the Mon candle, not carried. Data quality note: all listed datasets verified. Spot (Finnhub/OANDA, ~18:06-18:07 PKT), daily OHLC Mon 9 Nov (Finnhub/OANDA), Dukascopy 1H/4H candles (fresh fetch 18:02:33 PKT, continuity checked), RSI 1H/4H (Dukascopy closes), daily RSI/EMA20 (267 completed daily closes). VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series. The 17:00-21:00 4H candles are forming and close at 21:00 PKT. Note: the structured daily series' Tue in-progress bar low (XAU 4108.215 / XAG 52.6985) is stale against the live Finnhub snapshot low (4068.715 / 52.086); the snapshot low is used for session extremes. Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook Gold: - Evidence score E = -4 (component breakdown: 1H momentum +1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H -1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 +1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Mildly Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 5% (range 0-10), Bearish 45% (range 40-50), Neutral 50% (range 45-55) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: +5pp / -15pp / +10pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 45% (range 40-50), Sell 55% (range 50-60); Cash Keep 85% (range 80-90), Buy 15% (range 10-20) — Previous: Hold 45 / Sell 55, Keep 80 / Buy 20, Change: Sell 0pp, Keep +5pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: the 17:00-18:00 1H candle turned bullish, flipping momentum positive and lifting E from -6 to -4, so conviction follows the regime back to Mildly Bearish — but with 4H structure still bearish, both RSIs below 50 and 14 closes below R1, the move is a one-candle pause, not a reversal. Reason for the allocation decision: the adopted band is already Mildly Bearish, so no new adoption is due; this run completes the central catch-up allowed by the 5pp cap (Keep 80 to 85, now on target) because the band is still adopted and every component is verified. Silver: - Evidence score E = -8 (component breakdown: 1H momentum -1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot -1) - Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish) - Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0-5), Bearish 60% (range 55-65), Neutral 40% (range 35-45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp - Recommended allocation: Hold 35% (range 30-40), Sell 65% (range 60-70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85-95), Buy 10% (range 5-15) — Previous: Hold 35 / Sell 65, Keep 90 / Buy 10, Change: 0pp, Status: ADOPTED - Reason for the conviction decision: every component is unchanged from 17:00 — the bearish 1H candle, bearish 4H structure, RSI 1H below 50 and daily RSI in the 40-50 band all still score negative, so conviction stays Bearish. Reason for the allocation decision: the Bearish band is already adopted with its central on target, and the spot-only dip below S1 is unconfirmed, so the allocation is maintained with no change — a spot move alone never moves the holdings recommendation. Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.