Silver Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 PKT

Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 14:00 PKT
XAU/USD spot: $4,098.07
R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80
Pivot: 4114.60
S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17
Spot is below Pivot, below nearest adjacent level.
XAG/USD spot: $52.51
R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14
Pivot: 52.84
S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14
Spot is below Pivot, below nearest adjacent level.

**Gold — Hourly update**
Spot $4,098.07 is below the Tuesday Pivot by $16.53 (−0.40%), above S1 by $17.59. Nearest level is the Pivot, $16.53 above spot.
Current price vs previous completed 1H close: −$14.31 (−0.35%) vs $4,112.383 — that close is the 12:00–13:00 candle, one hour stale; the 13:00–14:00 1H candle was never published by Dukascopy despite five fetches to 14:10 PKT.
Last verified completed 1H candle (12:00–13:00 PKT, late-published backfill): Bearish, O 4121.067, H 4126.315, L 4111.995, C 4112.383. Body $8.684 = 60.6% of range; close −$8.67 (−0.21%) vs the prior 1H close. **First verified 1H close below the Pivot (−$2.22)**, ending the 2-consecutive-above streak; ninth consecutive verified close below R1.
4H trend: Mixed structure on the latest verified 4H (09:00–13:00 PKT: Bearish, O 4110.816, H 4127.595, L 4108.225, C 4112.383; body $1.567 = 8.1% of range; close +$1.50 (+0.14%) vs the prior 4H close; lower high but higher low). **First verified 4H close below the Pivot (−$2.22).** This 4H was not stored at 13:00 because its close then reflected only 3 of 4 1H bars; it is now verified complete and stored.
Level crossed: the Pivot was crossed to the downside on verified 1H and 4H closes — the first verified multi-timeframe Pivot break for gold today. No new session BID low (12:00–13:00 low $4,111.995 is above the 08:00–09:00 BID low $4,107.89).
RSI(14): 1H 49.49 (below 50, was 53.67), 4H 56.99. Session VWAP: unavailable. Daily Pivot 4114.60 from Mon 9 Nov OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA).
Session extremes so far: gold high $4,146.74 (Finnhub/OANDA MID) / $4,146.45 (Dukascopy BID 1H high); low $4,088.84 (MID, new session low) / $4,107.89 (BID, unchanged pending the missing 13:00–14:00 candle).

**Silver — Hourly update**
Spot $52.51 is below the Tuesday Pivot by $0.33 (−0.62%), above S1 by $0.37. Nearest level is the Pivot, $0.33 above spot.
Current price vs previous completed 1H close: −$0.25 (−0.48%) vs $52.766.
Last completed 1H candle (13:00–14:00 PKT): Bearish, O 52.695, H 52.895, L 52.693, C 52.766. Body $0.071 = 35.1% of range; close +$0.07 (+0.13%) vs the prior 1H close. **Second consecutive verified 1H close below the Pivot (−$0.07)**; tenth consecutive verified close below R1.
4H trend: Bearish — lower high and lower low. Latest completed 4H remains 09:00–13:00 PKT (C 52.70, below the Pivot by $0.14). The 13:00–17:00 4H bar is forming and not stored; it closes 17:00 PKT.
Level crossed: the Pivot break from 13:00 held on a second verified 1H close. No new session BID low (13:00–14:00 low $52.693 is above the 12:00–13:00 BID low $52.681).
RSI(14): 1H 48.14 (still below 50), 4H 53.56. Session VWAP: unavailable. Daily Pivot 52.84 from Mon 9 Nov OHLC (Finnhub/OANDA).
Session extremes so far: silver high $53.729 (MID) / $53.71 (BID); low $52.24 (MID, new session low) / $52.681 (BID, unchanged).

**Daily pivot validation status**
Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA — O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685. No newer completed daily candle was found; the pivots shown were newly calculated from that candle (written by the 03:30 daily run, recomputed and matched this run), not carried blindly.
Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA — O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365. No newer completed daily candle was found; the pivots shown were newly calculated from that candle (written by the 03:30 daily run, recomputed and matched this run), not carried blindly.

**Data quality note**
Gold 1H candle 13:00–14:00 PKT unavailable — Dukascopy late publication (five fetches 14:02–14:10 PKT, last bar still 12:00–13:00). VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume. All other listed datasets verified: spot checks ~13:58/14:04/14:08 PKT, gold 1H 12:00–13:00 and 4H 09:00–13:00, silver 1H 13:00–14:00 and 4H 09:00–13:00, RSI 1H/4H, daily OHLC and pivots. Cross-check discrepancy disclosed: gold spot moved −$20.13/−$14.31 vs the stale 1H close on the 2nd/3rd checks (over the $5 threshold) and silver −$0.51/−$0.25 (over the $0.20 threshold) — a genuine sharp intra-hour move, not a stale quote: quotes are live and moving, session lows updated on every check, and silver's drop is corroborated by an independent source ($52.47 at 14:02 PKT). No conviction lowering beyond the stale-component handling already applied; the stale-spot guard does not apply.

**Dynamic reassessment**
The 13:00–14:00 hour is the significant reversal — a sharp drop on both metals. Gold's Neutral thesis from 13:00 has now weakened to Mildly Bearish on verified evidence: the first verified 1H close below the Pivot AND the first verified 4H close below the Pivot, RSI 1H below 50, spot $16.53 below the Pivot. The thesis change is NOT yet a band move — the current-hour 1H candle is missing, so the freshest candle is one hour stale, the data-quality guard blocks adoption, and the Mildly Bearish regime needs a second consecutive run (counter 1 of 2).
Silver's Bearish thesis has confirmed and deepened — E fell −6 to −8 as the second consecutive verified 1H close below the Pivot landed, the 4H stays below the Pivot, RSI 1H stays below 50, and spot fell below the Pivot. The further spot drop in the forming 14:00–15:00 hour (spot $52.51 vs 1H close $52.77) is NOT yet candle-confirmed.
Breakout monitoring: no R3/S3 breakout on the Tuesday pivots. Gold's break above R3 $4,045.05 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC, in force Wed 4 Nov) holds on the verified Monday daily candle; silver's R3 $52.94 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC) breakout stays failed on completed daily candles.
Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 (gold 4174.80 / silver 54.14), then above R2 (4208.91 / 54.85); bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S1 (gold 4080.48 / silver 52.14), then below S2 (4020.28 / 50.84). Invalidation: a verified 1H close above R1 invalidates the bearish case; a verified 1H close below S1 strengthens it. TP reference: R2/R3 for bullish, S2/S3 for bearish — reference only, never a profit guarantee.
Events: US CPI (October) due TODAY Tue 10 Nov, 18:30 PKT / 08:30 ET. PPI Fri 13 Nov. PCE Wed 25 Nov. FOMC 8–9 Dec.

**Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook**

Gold — Evidence score E −2 (1H momentum −1 stale, persistence −2 stale, 4H structure 0, RSI 1H −1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 +1, spot vs Pivot −1)
Market regime: Mildly Bearish (previous run: Neutral / Stalled)
Conviction: Bullish 5% (range 0–10), Bearish 45% (range 40–50), Neutral 50% (range 45–55) — Previous: 10 / 35 / 55, Change: −5pp / +10pp / −5pp
Recommended allocation: Hold 55% (range 50–60), Sell 45% (range 40–50); Cash Keep 65% (range 60–70), Buy 35% (range 30–40) — Previous: Hold 55 / Sell 45, Cash 65 / 35, Change: 0pp, Status: HELD
Reason for conviction decision: the score fell 0 to −2 as RSI 1H dropped below 50 and spot fell below the Pivot, with the first verified 1H and 4H closes below the Pivot — a genuine regime change to Mildly Bearish, though only by two points.
Reason for allocation decision: held because the new regime has persisted only 1 run (counter 1 of 2) and adoption is blocked by the data-quality guard — C1/C2 are stale with the 13:00–14:00 1H candle unavailable. The major-event exception did not re-fire: it fired once for gold at 09:00 and does not re-fire, and the stale 1H means the guard blocks adoption anyway.

Silver — Evidence score E −8 (1H momentum −1, persistence −2, 4H structure −2, RSI 1H −1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI −1, spot vs EMA20 −1, spot vs Pivot −1)
Market regime: Bearish (previous run: Bearish)
Conviction: Bullish 0% (range 0–5), Bearish 60% (range 55–65), Neutral 40% (range 35–45) — Previous: 0 / 60 / 40, Change: 0pp / 0pp / 0pp
Recommended allocation: Hold 35% (range 30–40), Sell 65% (range 60–70); Cash Keep 90% (range 85–95), Buy 10% (range 5–15) — Previous: Hold 40 / Sell 60, Cash 85 / 15, Change: Sell +5pp, Keep +5pp, Status: ADOPTED (central catch-up complete)
Reason for conviction decision: the score deepened −6 to −8 on a second consecutive verified 1H close below the Pivot, with all 8 components verified and momentum plus structure negative — the Bearish regime is unchanged but stronger.
Reason for allocation decision: the central catch-up completed this run — Sell moved 60 → 65 and Keep 85 → 90, exactly 5pp each at the cap, landing on the Bearish band target. No new adoption: the band already equals the regime and the counter is 1 of 2.

Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.

Note: the worker's summary listed silver's previous allocation as Hold 35 / Sell 65, Cash 90 / 10 (0pp change) — that is wrong; the run log shows the previous was Hold 40 / Sell 60, Cash 85 / 15, so this run's catch-up step is +5pp on both legs. Sheet writes read-back verified: Hourly rows 254–255, OHLC rows 774–776, Run_Log row 141, 0 rows pruned.