Silver Hourly Analysis — 10 Nov 2026, 09:00 PKT

Gold & Silver Spot Pivots — Tue 10 Nov 2026, 09:00 PKT
XAU/USD spot: $4,110.36
R3: 4269.11 | R2: 4208.91 | R1: 4174.80
Pivot: 4114.60
S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17
Spot is below Pivot, above S1.
XAG/USD spot: $53.00
R3: 56.14 | R2: 54.85 | R1: 54.14
Pivot: 52.84
S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14
Spot is above Pivot, below R1.

Hourly update — sixth hourly of the Tuesday session (new Tue pivots from Mon 9 Nov OHLC).

Gold: spot $4,110.36 is below the Tue Pivot by $4.24 (-0.10%) and above S1 by $29.88; nearest level is the Pivot. Last completed 1H (08:00–09:00 PKT, Dukascopy BID): Bearish, O 4111.438, H 4117.218, L 4107.889, C 4110.887, body $0.55 = 5.9% of range; close vs prior 1H close -$0.52 (-0.01%). Second consecutive verified 1H close below Tue Pivot; fifth consecutive verified 1H close below Tue R1 (streak 5 below R1); R1 not reached on this candle (high $57.58 below R1); low $6.71 below Tue Pivot, close $3.71 below Tue Pivot; new Tue-session low (BID 4107.889). 4H: new 05:00–09:00 PKT candle is Bearish, O 4138.595, H 4141.147, L 4107.889, C 4110.887, body $27.71 = 83.3% of range; close vs prior 4H close -$27.81 (-0.67%) — structure BEARISH (lower high 4141.147, lower low 4107.889 vs prior 4H), the first bearish 4H structure of the Tue session; first verified 4H close below Tue Pivot. RSI(14) 1H 49.53 (still below 50), 4H 56.75. Current price vs previous completed 1H close: -$0.53 (-0.01%) — raw spot vs BID close, mixed basis. VWAP unavailable. Daily Pivot 4114.60 restated (from Mon 9 Nov OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA).

Silver: spot $53.00 is above the Tue Pivot by $0.16 (+0.30%) and below Tue R1 by $1.14; nearest level is the Pivot. No level crossed in the last hour — price held above the Pivot. Last completed 1H (08:00–09:00 PKT, Dukascopy BID): Bearish (near-doji), O 52.963, H 53.111, L 52.865, C 52.961, body $0.002 = 0.8% of range; close vs prior 1H close -$0.003 (-0.01%). Pivot NOT crossed (low $0.03 above Pivot, close $0.12 above Pivot — fifth consecutive close above Pivot); fifth consecutive verified 1H close below Tue R1 (streak 5 below R1); R1 not reached on this candle (high $1.03 below R1); new Tue-session low (BID 52.865). 4H: new 05:00–09:00 PKT candle is Bearish, O 53.37, H 53.633, L 52.865, C 52.961, body $0.409 = 53.3% of range; close vs prior 4H close -$0.40 (-0.74%) — structure BEARISH (lower high 53.633, lower low 52.865 vs prior 4H); 4H close above Tue Pivot by $0.12, below Tue R1 by $1.18. RSI(14) 1H 53.15, 4H 55.81. Current price vs previous completed 1H close: +$0.04 (+0.07%) — raw spot vs BID close, mixed basis. VWAP unavailable. Daily Pivot 52.84 restated (from Mon 9 Nov OHLC, Finnhub/OANDA).

Thesis check: the bearish reversal that began in the 07:00 hour has now confirmed on multiple timeframes for gold — the 05:00–09:00 4H candle closed bearish with lower high and lower low, and the 1H closed below Pivot for the second consecutive hour. The Monday-rally thesis is now materially weakened for gold and the short-term bearish case has its first multi-timeframe confirmation — but it is NOT a full invalidation of the longer bullish backdrop: daily RSI is still above 50 (53.58), spot is still above EMA20 (4073.05), and S1 ($29.88 below spot) has no verified close below it. Silver's thesis is also weakened (regime Neutral to Mildly Bearish) but its closes held above Pivot on both timeframes and RSI 1H/4H remain above 50, so the bearish case is NOT confirmed for silver. Breakout monitoring: no R3/S3 breakout on the new Tue pivots. Gold's break above R3 $4,045.05 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC, in force Wed 4 Nov) holds on the verified Mon daily candle; silver's R3 $52.94 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC) breakout stays failed on completed daily candles. Scenario confirmation levels (reference only): bullish — a verified 1H close above Tue R1 (gold 4174.80 / silver 54.14), then above R2 (4208.91 / 54.85); bearish — a verified 1H close below Tue S1 (gold 4080.48 / silver 52.14), then below S2 (4020.28 / 50.84). Invalidation: a verified 1H close above Tue R1 invalidates the bearish case; a verified 1H close below Tue S1 strengthens it. TP reference: R2/R3 for bullish, S2/S3 for bearish — reference only, never a profit guarantee. Events: US CPI (October) due TODAY Tue 10 Nov, 18:30 PKT / 08:30 ET; PPI Fri 13 Nov; PCE Wed 25 Nov; FOMC 8–9 Dec.

Daily pivot validation status:
Gold — pivot source date Mon 9 Nov 2026, provider Finnhub/OANDA. OHLC used: O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685. No newer completed daily candle found (the latest daily row still shows in-progress values and was not used). Pivots shown are newly calculated from the Mon 9 Nov OHLC (written by the 03:30 daily run, recomputed and matched this run).
Silver — pivot source date Mon 9 Nov 2026, provider Finnhub/OANDA. OHLC used: O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365. No newer completed daily candle found (the latest daily row still shows in-progress values and was not used). Pivots shown are newly calculated from the Mon 9 Nov OHLC (written by the 03:30 daily run, recomputed and matched this run).

Data quality note: spot (Finnhub/OANDA, 3 checks, latest ~09:08 PKT), 1H candles (Dukascopy BID, 08:00–09:00 PKT), 4H candles (05:00–09:00 PKT), daily OHLC and pivots all verified. Cross-checks within thresholds (XAU within $1.44 of the new 1H close at the first check, -$0.53 at the latest; XAG within $0.04). Older crawls above the live quote disclosed (thegoldprice.net, goldspotprice.org on gold; goldpricetracker, goldspotprice.org, moneyconvert bracketing silver); Finnhub is corroborated by the Dukascopy BID close on both metals, so no conviction lowering. VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series for spot. Finnhub 30-min series not used as candle data (reference only). Session extremes Tue so far: gold high $4,146.74 (Finnhub/OANDA MID) / $4,146.45 (Dukascopy BID); low $4,108.22 (MID) / $4,107.89 (BID) — new session low on both bases. Silver high $53.729 (MID) / $53.71 (BID); low $52.892 (MID) / $52.865 (BID) — new session low on both bases.

Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook

Gold — Evidence score E = -4 (1H momentum -1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H -1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 +1, spot vs Pivot -1). Market regime: Mildly Bearish (previous run: Neutral / Stalled). Conviction: Bullish 5% (range 0–10), Bearish 45% (range 40–50), Neutral 50% (range 45–55) — Previous: 10 / 35 / 55, Change: -5pp / +10pp / -5pp. Recommended allocation: Hold 55% (range 50–60), Sell 45% (range 40–50); Cash Keep 65% (range 60–70), Buy 35% (range 30–40) — Previous: Hold 60 / Sell 40, Cash 70 / 30, Change: -5pp / +5pp, -5pp / +5pp. Status: ADOPTED (major-event exception — verified 1H close 4110.887 AND verified 4H close 4110.887 both below Tue Pivot; the condition first became true this run — at 08:00 the 1H close was below Pivot but the 4H close 4138.697 was above it). Adopted band Bullish to Mildly Bullish, one band only; counter reset to 0. The central is fully on the new target — both the Sell move (40 to 45) and the Keep move (70 to 65) are exactly 5pp, at the cap, so no cap exception was needed. Reason for conviction: the regime changed on the bearish 1H candle, the 4H structure flipping to lower high and lower low, and RSI 1H staying below 50. Reason for allocation: the major-event exception fired on the first run the 1H-and-4H-below-Pivot condition was true; it moves the band one step only and does not re-fire on persistence.

Silver — Evidence score E = -2 (1H momentum -1, persistence -2, 4H structure -2, RSI 1H +1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot +1). Market regime: Mildly Bearish (previous run: Neutral / Stalled). Conviction: Bullish 5% (range 0–10), Bearish 45% (range 40–50), Neutral 50% (range 45–55) — Previous: 10 / 35 / 55, Change: -5pp / +10pp / -5pp. Recommended allocation: Hold 55% (range 50–60), Sell 45% (range 40–50); Cash Keep 65% (range 60–70), Buy 35% (range 30–40) — Previous: Hold 55 / Sell 45, Cash 65 / 35, Change: 0pp / 0pp. Status: HELD (counter 1 of 2 in the new Mildly Bearish regime; central already on target, nothing to catch up). Reason for conviction: the bearish 1H and 4H structure and the R1 persistence drag against RSI 1H/4H still above 50, netting to Mildly Bearish. Reason for allocation: no adoption — the Neutral band needs a second consecutive Mildly Bearish run, and no major-event exception applies (silver's 1H and 4H closes are both above Pivot).

Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.