Daily Analysis — Monday 9 November 2026

Daily Technical Analysis — Monday 9 Nov 2026 Session (Tue 10 Nov 03:30 PKT)
Calculation period: Monday session Mon 04:00 PKT – Tue 03:00 PKT. Data timestamp: spot checked ~03:31–03:35 PKT (Finnhub/OANDA, break, static as expected). Spot only, never futures.

GOLD — XAU/USD
Current Price: $4,140.69
Daily Pivot (Tue): 4114.60 | R1: 4174.80 | R2: 4208.91 | R3: 4269.11
S1: 4080.48 | S2: 4020.28 | S3: 3986.17
Previous Day High: $4,148.71 (Finnhub/OANDA MID) / $4,148.58 (Dukascopy BID)
Previous Day Low: $4,054.40 (MID) / $4,054.12 (BID)
Weekly Support: 3925.59 (weekly S1) | Weekly Resistance: 4181.25 (weekly R1)
Market Direction: Bullish on the daily, not fully confirmed — daily RSI crossed above 50 and the close is above EMA20, but the final 1H candle was bearish, 4H structure is mixed, and Monday R2 was rejected on the close twice.

Fibonacci (Tue): P 4114.60 | R1 4150.62 | R2 4172.88 | R3 4208.91 | S1 4078.57 | S2 4056.31 | S3 4020.28
Camarilla (Tue): R1 4149.33 | R2 4157.98 | R3 4166.62 | R4 4192.56 | S1 4132.04 | S2 4123.39 | S3 4114.75 | S4 4088.81

Daily: Monday closed +$70.10 (+1.72%) at $4,140.69 (O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685). RSI(14) 53.58 (crossed above 50), EMA20 4073.05, EMA50 4153.85, EMA200 4362.90, ATR(14) 84.68. Close above EMA20, below EMA50 and EMA200. The R1 reclaim held on a third consecutive verified 1H close.
4H: mixed — latest completed 4H (21:00-01:00) closed above R1 with a higher high but a lower low at $4,100.31.
1H: final candle (02:00-03:00) bearish, C $4,140.07, body 13.5%. RSI(14) 1H 63.63, 4H 62.36.
Weekly: previous completed week Mon 2 – Fri 6 Nov (O 3896.06, H 4146.92, L 3891.26, C 4070.59, +5.03% vs prior Fri close). Weekly pivots: P 4036.26, R1 4181.25, R2 4291.92, R3 4436.91, S1 3925.59, S2 3780.60, S3 3669.93.
S/R: nearest resistance Tue R1 4174.80, strong resistance Tue R2 4208.91; nearest support Tue Pivot 4114.60, strong support Tue S1 4080.48; confluence: Camarilla R1 4149.33 sits just above the Monday close, Fibonacci R1 4150.62 agrees.
Outlook: the bearish thesis from the NFP sell-off is WEAKENING further — daily RSI crossed above 50, the close is above EMA20, and the R1 reclaim held — but it is NOT a confirmed reversal: the final 1H candle was bearish, 4H is mixed, and Monday R2 was rejected on the close twice.
Bullish scenario (reference only): a verified 1H/4H close above Tue R1 4174.80, then above R2 4208.91. Entry zone above 4174.80; invalidation below Tue Pivot 4114.60; TP1 4174.80, TP2 4208.91, TP3 4269.11.
Bearish scenario (reference only): a verified 1H/4H close below Tue Pivot 4114.60, then below S1 4080.48. Entry zone below 4114.60; invalidation above R1 4174.80; TP1 4080.48, TP2 4020.28, TP3 3986.17.

SILVER — XAG/USD
Current Price: $53.44
Daily Pivot (Tue): 52.84 | R1: 54.14 | R2: 54.85 | R3: 56.14
S1: 52.14 | S2: 50.84 | S3: 50.14
Previous Day High: $53.55 (Finnhub/OANDA MID) / $53.53 (Dukascopy BID)
Previous Day Low: $51.55 (MID) / $51.49 (BID)
Weekly Support: 49.21 (weekly S1) | Weekly Resistance: 54.08 (weekly R1)
Market Direction: Bullish on candles, daily not confirmed — 14 consecutive closes above R1 and 3 above R2 with a bullish 4H, but daily RSI 43.65 is below 50 and spot is below EMA20.

Fibonacci (Tue): P 52.84 | R1 53.61 | R2 54.08 | R3 54.85 | S1 52.08 | S2 51.61 | S3 50.84
Camarilla (Tue): R1 53.62 | R2 53.80 | R3 53.99 | R4 54.54 | S1 53.25 | S2 53.07 | S3 52.89 | S4 52.33

Daily: Monday closed +$1.49 (+2.87%) at $53.44 (O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365). RSI(14) 43.65, EMA20 54.26, EMA50 58.02, EMA200 65.79, ATR(14) 2.13. Close above the Monday Pivot, below EMA20, EMA50 and EMA200. The R1 reclaim held on a fourteenth consecutive verified close, with three consecutive closes above R2.
4H: bullish — latest completed 4H (21:00-01:00) closed above R2 with higher high and higher low; first 4H close above R2.
1H: final candle (02:00-03:00) bullish, C $53.407, body 28.4%. RSI(14) 1H 63.56, 4H 59.81.
Weekly: previous completed week Mon 2 – Fri 6 Nov (O 49.3528, H 53.4775, L 48.6165, C 51.9445, +5.72% vs prior Fri close). Weekly pivots: P 51.35, R1 54.08, R2 56.21, R3 58.94, S1 49.21, S2 46.49, S3 44.35.
S/R: nearest resistance Tue R1 54.14, strong resistance Tue R2 54.85; nearest support Tue Pivot 52.84, strong support Tue S1 52.14; confluence: Fibonacci R2 54.08 and weekly R1 54.08 agree at the same level.
Outlook: silver's bullish case STRENGTHENED on the hourly — 14th consecutive close above R1, three consecutive closes above R2, bullish 4H structure — but the daily backdrop (daily RSI 43.65, spot below EMA20 54.26) still limits it, so it is NOT a confirmed daily reversal.
Bullish scenario (reference only): a verified 1H/4H close above Tue R1 54.14, then above R2 54.85. Entry zone above 54.14; invalidation below Tue Pivot 52.84; TP1 54.14, TP2 54.85, TP3 56.14.
Bearish scenario (reference only): a verified 1H/4H close below Tue Pivot 52.84, then below S1 52.14. Entry zone below 52.84; invalidation above R1 54.14; TP1 52.14, TP2 50.84, TP3 50.14.

Daily pivot validation status:
- Gold: pivots from Mon 9 Nov OHLC (O 4061.89, H 4148.71, L 4054.395, C 4140.685), Finnhub/OANDA. The just-closed candle was verified — the quote O/H/L is corroborated by the fresh Dukascopy 1H aggregate (H diff $0.13, L diff $0.28, final 1H close diff $0.62). Pivots newly calculated from the Mon OHLC. (The Finnhub structured daily series' Monday candle is still in-progress values and was NOT used for the close.)
- Silver: pivots from Mon 9 Nov OHLC (O 51.61, H 53.5485, L 51.5455, C 53.4365), Finnhub/OANDA. The just-closed candle was verified — corroborated by the Dukascopy 1H aggregate (H diff $0.02, L diff $0.06, final 1H close diff $0.03). Pivots newly calculated from the Mon OHLC.

Data quality note: session VWAP unavailable — no reliable centralised intraday volume series for spot. Finnhub 30-min index series frozen (n=230) — reference only. Finnhub structured daily Monday bars not yet finalised (in-progress values, not used). All other datasets verified.

Events: US CPI (October) due TODAY Tue 10 Nov (usual release 18:30 PKT / 08:30 ET). PPI Fri 13 Nov. PCE Wed 25 Nov. FOMC 8–9 Dec. NFP was Fri 6 Nov (blowout — gold dived below $4,100 intraday, then recovered).

Dynamic allocation reassessment: Mon close vs Fri close — XAU +$70.10 (+1.72%), XAG +$1.49 (+2.87%); vs Mon 04:00 open — XAU +$78.80 (+1.94%), XAG +$1.83 (+3.54%); vs Tue 02:00 — XAU +$1.05 (+0.03%), XAG +$0.13 (+0.24%). The bearish thesis from the NFP sell-off is WEAKENING further on gold, and silver's bullish case STRENGTHENED on the hourly — but neither is a confirmed daily reversal, and neither thesis is invalidated. Selling allocation is never an instruction to liquidate long-term physical holdings.
Breakout monitoring: no R3/S3 breakout on the Monday session's own pivots. Gold Mon close $4,140.69 is $5.73 below Mon R2 4146.42 (R2 reached intraday at $4,148.58 BID / $4,148.71 MID but rejected on the close — second rejection); gold's break above old R3 $4,045.05 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC, in force Wed 4 Nov) HOLDS on the verified Mon daily candle. Silver Mon close $53.44 is $0.22 below Mon R3 53.66 (R3 NOT reached intraday — session high $53.55 MID / $53.53 BID); silver's Mon close is above old R3 $52.94 (from Tue 3 Nov OHLC) on a completed daily candle, but that level governed Wed 4 Nov, not Monday — against Monday's own R3 $53.66 the close is below, so no breakout on the Mon session's own pivots.

Physical Gold/Silver & Cash Allocation Outlook:
Gold — Evidence score E = +6 (1H momentum -1, persistence +2, 4H structure 0, RSI 1H +1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI +1, spot vs EMA20 +1, spot vs Pivot +1). Market regime: Bullish (previous run: old logic — no regime). Conviction: Bullish 50% (range 45-55), Bearish 15% (range 10-20), Neutral 35% (range 30-40) — Previous (old logic): 25 / 40 / 35, Change: +25pp / -25pp / 0pp. Recommended allocation: Hold 70% (old-logic baseline — above the Bullish band 55-65; no band adopted yet), Sell 30%; Cash Keep 70% (at the Mildly Bullish band edge 60-70), Buy 30% — Previous (old logic): 70/30, 70/30, Change: 0pp / 0pp, Status: PENDING CONFIRMATION. Reason for the conviction decision: this is the first daily run under the new engine — the regime is Bullish on a +6 score (daily RSI crossed above 50, close above EMA20, R1 streak of 3), so conviction follows the regime live from the old-logic 25/40/35; the score is shown so the move is not misread as a reversal. Reason for the allocation decision: this is run 1 in the Bullish regime (counter 1 of 2), so no adoption can happen on this run; all components verified and both guards passed (spot is the just-closed session's own verified close, so the stale-spot guard does not cap the regime). Note: if Bullish persists to the Wed 11 Nov daily, the Bullish band adopts — the central moves from Hold 70/Sell 30, Cash 70/30 toward Hold 60/Sell 40, Cash 60/40 in ≤5pp steps (Sell 30 → 35 on that update).
Silver — Evidence score E = +6 (1H momentum +1, persistence +2, 4H structure +2, RSI 1H +1, RSI 4H +1, daily RSI -1, spot vs EMA20 -1, spot vs Pivot +1). Market regime: Bullish (previous run: old logic — no regime). Conviction: Bullish 50% (range 45-55), Bearish 15% (range 10-20), Neutral 35% (range 30-40) — Previous (old logic): 20 / 50 / 30, Change: +30pp / -35pp / +5pp. Recommended allocation: Hold 65% (at the Bullish band edge 55-65; no band adopted yet), Sell 35%; Cash Keep 75% (at the Neutral band edge 75-85), Buy 25% — Previous (old logic): 65/35, 75/25, Change: 0pp / 0pp, Status: PENDING CONFIRMATION. Reason for the conviction decision: this is the first daily run under the new engine — the regime is Bullish on a +6 score (14 closes above R1, 3 above R2, bullish 4H), so conviction follows the regime live from the old-logic 20/50/30; the score is shown so the move is not misread as a reversal. Reason for the allocation decision: this is run 1 in the Bullish regime (counter 1 of 2), so no adoption can happen on this run; all components verified and both guards passed. Note: if Bullish persists to the Wed daily, the Bullish band adopts — the central moves from Hold 65/Sell 35, Cash 75/25 toward Hold 60/Sell 40, Cash 60/40 in ≤5pp steps (Sell 35 → 40 and Keep 75 → 70 on that update).

Decision support only. This system never executes, authorizes, or places any purchase or sale of physical gold or silver, or any financial transaction of any kind. Any physical gold or silver purchase or sale requires explicit human judgment and authorization. The percentages and ranges above are technical conviction and suggested allocation preferences, NOT statistically verified probabilities of profit or loss.